BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prairie Warbler In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontForest birds

Prairie Warbler in Piedmont has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-59%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
155Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prairie Warbler has fallen sharply in Piedmont: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Piedmont is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.2–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–3.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Piedmont is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.2–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.51.33.7
20262.51.33.7
20272.51.33.6
20282.41.23.6
20292.41.23.6

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Prairie Warbler in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ft Pickett SVIRGINIA231995
Liberty CityALABAMA212011
Ft Pickett NVIRGINIA211995
Piedmont NwrGEORGIA152003
Nixburg 2ALABAMA132024
MannboroVIRGINIA132024
LincolntonGEORGIA112017
FairplayGEORGIA111991
GuptonNORTH-CAROLINA112024
MetasvilleGEORGIA102000
Yates CrossroadsGEORGIA92024
ArcolaNORTH-CAROLINA92024
YoungsvilleNORTH-CAROLINA92024
PartlowVIRGINIA82015
NixburgALABAMA71999
MaxeysGEORGIA72024
Stoney PointGEORGIA72007
CherryvilleNORTH-CAROLINA71968
RidgewaySOUTH-CAROLINA72021
Carters Brdg 2VIRGINIA72024
Liberty City 2ALABAMA62024
Carrs StationGEORGIA62024
Uwharrie NfNORTH-CAROLINA62001
WashingtonGEORGIA52024
BiscoeNORTH-CAROLINA52017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.