BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Prairie Warbler In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Prairie Warbler in Central Hardwoods has declined: down 41% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-41%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
151Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Prairie Warbler in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Prairie Warbler In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.6 (95% range 0.90–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.90–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.6 (95% range 0.90–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.60.972.3
20271.60.952.3
20281.60.942.3
20291.60.922.3
20301.60.902.2

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Prairie Warbler in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DixonKENTUCKY132022
DelwoodILLINOIS122025
RomeOHIO102025
GeorgiaINDIANA92025
CollinwoodTENNESSEE92025
Indian Mound 2TENNESSEE92023
JohnsonvilleKENTUCKY82021
HegiraKENTUCKY72024
JoyKENTUCKY72023
Hodgenville 2KENTUCKY72023
Lewis ForestTENNESSEE72025
TrianaALABAMA62009
BelknapILLINOIS62025
GlencoeKENTUCKY62022
PorterKENTUCKY62025
RiverqueenKENTUCKY62025
RupertARKANSAS52024
CorydonINDIANA52025
ApexKENTUCKY52025
Mammoth CaveKENTUCKY52014
RichlandMISSOURI52019
TullahomaTENNESSEE52015
ZionARKANSAS42025
Ozark NfARKANSAS42025
New PhilaINDIANA42025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.