BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prairie Warbler In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Prairie Warbler in Central Hardwoods has declined: down 33% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-33%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
151Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Prairie Warbler in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Prairie Warbler In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.93–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.93–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.93–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.71.02.4
20261.70.992.3
20271.60.972.3
20281.60.952.3
20291.60.932.3

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Prairie Warbler in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lebanon JunctionKENTUCKY202024
RomeOHIO192024
DixonKENTUCKY132022
CollinwoodTENNESSEE112024
ApexKENTUCKY92024
Indian Mound 2TENNESSEE92023
JohnsonvilleKENTUCKY82021
GeorgiaINDIANA72024
HegiraKENTUCKY72024
JoyKENTUCKY72023
Hodgenville 2KENTUCKY72023
GranitevilleMISSOURI72024
TrianaALABAMA62009
DelwoodILLINOIS62024
CorydonINDIANA62024
GlencoeKENTUCKY62022
PorterKENTUCKY62024
BennettMISSOURI62024
RupertARKANSAS52024
BelknapILLINOIS52024
New PhilaINDIANA52024
East UnionKENTUCKY52022
Mammoth CaveKENTUCKY52014
RichlandMISSOURI52019
TullahomaTENNESSEE52015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.