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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Prairie Warbler In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

Prairie Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has surged: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+80%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
99Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prairie Warbler has surged in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Prairie Warbler In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 20% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 2.0–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.0–4.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 20% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 2.0–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.01.84.1
20273.01.94.2
20283.01.94.2
20293.11.94.2
20303.12.04.3

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Prairie Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PushmatahaOKLAHOMA272023
Hee MountainOKLAHOMA202024
Four LakesARKANSAS122001
Magazine MtnARKANSAS112025
TroutLOUISIANA112025
Flat CreekLOUISIANA112025
WaldronARKANSAS102025
Fort PolkLOUISIANA101970
EnterpriseLOUISIANA102025
Derry 2LOUISIANA92025
BethelOKLAHOMA92025
StephensARKANSAS72025
PrincetonARKANSAS72021
ZwolleLOUISIANA72023
Mt. HermanOKLAHOMA72022
Princeton 2ARKANSAS62022
IvanLOUISIANA62013
HargisLOUISIANA62009
NanceARKANSAS52025
ManyLOUISIANA51992
Old MiloARKANSAS42025
PoyenARKANSAS42007
LockesburgARKANSAS42019
Burr FerryLOUISIANA42025
CheniereLOUISIANA42025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.