BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesForest birds

Prairie Warbler in Oklahoma has surged: up 276% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+276%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prairie Warbler Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prairie Warbler has surged in Oklahoma: up 276% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Prairie Warbler Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.76–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.76–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.76–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.661.9
20261.30.692.0
20271.40.712.0
20281.40.732.0
20291.40.762.0

Prairie Warbler Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Prairie Warbler in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pushmataha2720231994
Hee Mountain2020241999
Bethel1120241993
Mt. Herman720221998
Big Cedar420241967
Goodwater420191992
Ouachita Nf320231992
Blanco220161967
Holdenville219941977
Phillips119711969
Ardmore119701970
Baron120001967
Canadian119731973
Indianola119851985
Noble119781967
Peoria119971968
Pocola119981998

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.