BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Prairie Warbler in Arkansas has declined: down 31% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-31%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prairie Warbler Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Prairie Warbler in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Prairie Warbler Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Arkansas is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.82–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.82–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Arkansas is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.82–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.80.802.9
20261.80.812.9
20271.90.812.9
20281.90.822.9
20291.90.822.9

Prairie Warbler Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Prairie Warbler in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dry Fork 21620242024
Four Lakes1220011994
Princeton720211998
Princeton 2620222022
Magazine Mtn520211993
Waldron520231968
Rupert520241967
Nance520241992
Poyen420071967
Lockesburg420192010
Hope320241969
Ashdown320141967
Ozark Nf320241991
Hollywood320241967
Stark320221971
Coal Hill319851969
Old Milo220241967
Crows219911967
Hatfield 2220242017
Lurton220211967
Havana220212010
Sims220242010
Eudora120011971
Ramsey119971967
Locust Bayou120231967

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamacaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.