BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Prairie Warbler in Arkansas has edged down: down 24% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-24%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prairie Warbler Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Prairie Warbler in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Prairie Warbler Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.9 (95% range 0.84–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.84–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.9 (95% range 0.84–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.90.822.9
20271.90.832.9
20281.90.832.9
20291.90.842.9
20301.90.842.9

Prairie Warbler Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Prairie Warbler in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Four Lakes1220011994
Magazine Mtn1120251993
Waldron1020251968
Stephens720252010
Princeton720211998
Princeton 2620222022
Rupert520241967
Nance520251992
Old Milo420251967
Ozark Nf420251991
Poyen420071967
Zion420251967
Lockesburg420192010
Ashdown320141967
Hollywood320241967
Stark320221971
Coal Hill319851969
Hope220251969
Crows219911967
Hatfield 2220252017
Lurton220211967
Havana220212010
Sims220252010
Boston Mtn.220251997
Eudora120011971

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamacaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.