BirdAnalyst
Species · Rhode Island · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Rhode Island

All statesForest birds

Prairie Warbler in Rhode Island has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-73%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prairie Warbler Trends in Rhode IslandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prairie Warbler has fallen sharply in Rhode Island: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Prairie Warbler Population Forecast in Rhode Island

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Rhode Island is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 0.50 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.63 (95% range 0.00–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.63Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Rhode Island is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 0.50 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.63 (95% range 0.00–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.800.003.5
20270.750.003.5
20280.710.003.4
20290.670.003.4
20300.630.003.3

Prairie Warbler Survey Routes in Rhode Island

Routes recording Prairie Warbler in Rhode Island.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Quonset Pt320171966
Shannock220251973
Pulaski219911991
Sachuest Pt119851966
Wallum Lake120221973
Casimir Pulaski Sf120182016

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.