Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Prairie Warbler Population Trend in New Jersey
Prairie Warbler in New Jersey has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
-58%Since 1968
34Routes In State
58Years
Notable Prairie Warbler Trends in New Jersey
long arc declinecomputed index
Prairie Warbler has fallen sharply in New Jersey: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
Prairie Warbler Population Forecast in New Jersey
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in New Jersey is projected to fall about 69% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.84 (95% range 0.00–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-69%Change by 2029
0.84Projected 2029 index
0.00–5.395% range
±52.9%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.1 | 0.00 | 5.6 |
| 2026 | 1.1 | 0.00 | 5.5 |
| 2027 | 0.99 | 0.00 | 5.4 |
| 2028 | 0.92 | 0.00 | 5.3 |
| 2029 | 0.84 | 0.00 | 5.3 |
Prairie Warbler Survey Routes in New Jersey
| Spraguetown 3 | 19 | 2024 | 2023 |
| Toms River | 12 | 2024 | 1966 |
| Bennett Mill | 11 | 2000 | 1966 |
| Friendship | 10 | 2024 | 1977 |
| Pomona | 8 | 2024 | 1978 |
| Estell Manor | 4 | 2022 | 2022 |
| Del Haven | 3 | 1991 | 1991 |
| Ancora | 3 | 1977 | 1966 |
| Holmansville | 3 | 2009 | 1969 |
| Pottersville | 3 | 2016 | 1979 |
| Winslow | 3 | 2024 | 1989 |
| Albion | 2 | 2022 | 1966 |
| Sandbrook | 2 | 2024 | 1972 |
| Gillette | 2 | 2024 | 1989 |
| Bennett Mill 2 | 2 | 2022 | 2016 |
| Woodbury Hgt | 1 | 1991 | 1986 |
| Greenwich | 1 | 2024 | 1966 |
| Six Points | 1 | 2024 | 1978 |
| Spraguetown 2 | 1 | 2012 | 2000 |
| New Bedford | 1 | 1998 | 1969 |
| Croton | 1 | 1974 | 1974 |
| Hope | 1 | 1994 | 1977 |
| Midvale | 1 | 2014 | 2002 |
| Kemah Lake | 1 | 2022 | 1969 |
| Bloomsbury | 1 | 2022 | 1990 |
Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.