Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Massachusetts
Prairie Warbler in Massachusetts has fallen sharply: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
-70%Since 1968
27Routes In State
58Years
Notable Prairie Warbler Trends in Massachusetts
long arc declinecomputed index
Prairie Warbler has fallen sharply in Massachusetts: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
Prairie Warbler Population Forecast in Massachusetts
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Massachusetts is projected to fall about 53% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-53%Change by 2029
0.47Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.795% range
±45%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 1.8 |
| 2026 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 1.7 |
| 2027 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 1.7 |
| 2028 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 1.7 |
| 2029 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 1.7 |
Prairie Warbler Survey Routes in Massachusetts
| Belchertown | 6 | 2024 | 1967 |
| Ware River | 4 | 2022 | 1993 |
| Wellfleet 2 | 4 | 2024 | 2021 |
| Chilmark | 3 | 1983 | 1969 |
| Warren | 2 | 2009 | 1968 |
| Chesterfield | 2 | 2015 | 1984 |
| Cape Cod Ns | 2 | 2007 | 1989 |
| Gay Head | 2 | 2024 | 1996 |
| Holden | 2 | 2022 | 1979 |
| E Dennis | 1 | 2018 | 1968 |
| Marion | 1 | 2010 | 1966 |
| Wellfleet | 1 | 1998 | 1966 |
| Prattville | 1 | 2018 | 1967 |
| Brockton | 1 | 2002 | 1970 |
| Newburyport | 1 | 1997 | 1967 |
| Maynard | 1 | 2011 | 1971 |
| Littleton | 1 | 2016 | 1967 |
| N Oxford | 1 | 2009 | 1968 |
| Mansfield | 1 | 2016 | 1969 |
| E Pepperell | 1 | 1989 | 1966 |
| S Barre | 1 | 2024 | 1968 |
| N Orange | 1 | 2024 | 1970 |
| Cummington | 1 | 1997 | 1974 |
| Sheffield | 1 | 2002 | 1969 |
| N. Andover | 1 | 1995 | 1995 |
Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.