BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Prairie Warbler In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Prairie Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 460% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+460%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prairie Warbler has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 460% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Prairie Warbler In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 0.28 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.09–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–0.3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 0.28 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.09–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.230.080.37
20270.230.080.37
20280.230.090.38
20290.230.090.38
20300.240.090.38

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Prairie Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
East TroyMAINE62021
ConcordNEW-HAMPSHIRE52025
Turner 2MAINE42025
FitzwilliamNEW-HAMPSHIRE42025
BiddefordMAINE32019
HopkintonNEW-HAMPSHIRE32022
TurnerMAINE22010
Otisfield GrMAINE21998
N OrangeMASSACHUSETTS22025
ChesterfieldMASSACHUSETTS22015
CanterburyNEW-HAMPSHIRE22024
Gilmantn I WNEW-HAMPSHIRE22018
Jefferson HlNEW-HAMPSHIRE22000
MarlboroVERMONT21988
New HartfordCONNECTICUT11987
New HartfordCONNECTICUT12016
WestbrookMAINE12024
NewcastleMAINE11979
GreenwoodMAINE12023
HartfordMAINE12024
Bowdoin CtrMAINE12021
ManchesterMAINE11981
BentonMAINE11972
BrooksMAINE12021
HancockMAINE12012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.