BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prairie Warbler In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Prairie Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 449% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+449%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prairie Warbler has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 449% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.09–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.22Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–0.3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.09–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.210.070.35
20260.220.080.35
20270.220.080.36
20280.220.080.36
20290.220.090.36

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Prairie Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ConcordNEW-HAMPSHIRE42024
BiddefordMAINE32019
HopkintonNEW-HAMPSHIRE32022
TurnerMAINE22010
Otisfield GrMAINE21998
East TroyMAINE22019
Turner 2MAINE22024
ChesterfieldMASSACHUSETTS22015
FitzwilliamNEW-HAMPSHIRE22024
CanterburyNEW-HAMPSHIRE22024
Gilmantn I WNEW-HAMPSHIRE22018
MarlowNEW-HAMPSHIRE22024
Jefferson HlNEW-HAMPSHIRE22000
MarlboroVERMONT21988
New HartfordCONNECTICUT11987
New HartfordCONNECTICUT12016
WestbrookMAINE12024
NewcastleMAINE11979
GreenwoodMAINE12023
HartfordMAINE12024
Bowdoin CtrMAINE12021
ManchesterMAINE11981
BentonMAINE11972
BrooksMAINE12019
HancockMAINE12012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.