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Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Pine Warbler in Missouri has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

13×Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pine Warbler Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Warbler has surged in Missouri: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Pine Warbler Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Missouri is projected to rise about 40% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.3–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+40%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Missouri is projected to rise about 40% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.3–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.21.23.3
20272.31.23.4
20282.31.23.4
20292.41.33.5
20302.41.33.5

Pine Warbler Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Pine Warbler in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bennett2620251994
Centerville2120251994
Cascade1420251980
Akers1220251967
Mincy1220252014
Williamsvill1120251994
Syracuse620161995
Rueter520222022
Rueter 2420252023
Hilda420251996
Palace420252013
Pineville320251983
Wesco320251975
Ironton219801973
Hayden220172004
Viburnum220242014
Doe Run220232019
West Plains220142014
Pulaski120012001
Peace Valley120251994
Sweden120241977
Cassville120232023
Clementine120021994
Watson120232022
Gerald120242024

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.