BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Alabama

All statesForest birds

Pine Warbler in Alabama has surged: up 260% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+260%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
107Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pine Warbler Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Warbler has surged in Alabama: up 259% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Pine Warbler Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Alabama is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 13 (95% range 9.7–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.7–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Alabama is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 13 (95% range 9.7–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026129.116
2027129.316
2028139.416
2029139.516
2030139.716

Pine Warbler Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Pine Warbler in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Liberty City 25120252017
Holt3820251993
Borden Springs 23820242001
Fairview3420251990
Warrior Std2920251966
Carrollton2920251994
Blocton2820251969
Epes2720241981
Greensboro2420251967
Elamville2420251984
Cottonton2120251966
Wedgeworth2020251979
Liberty1920221967
Appleton1920231993
Eufaula1920241996
Latham 21820252005
Seale1820171996
Perdido1720252021
Nixburg 21720252000
Bay Minette1720251996
Escatawpa1620231983
Brundidge1520211981
Latham1520001966
Liberty City1520111979
Borden Sprng1519981994

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Other States

arkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.