BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Alabama

All statesForest birds

Pine Warbler in Alabama has surged: up 276% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+276%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
107Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pine Warbler Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Warbler has surged in Alabama: up 276% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Pine Warbler Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Alabama is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 13 (95% range 9.6–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.6–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Alabama is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 13 (95% range 9.6–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025129.016
2026129.116
2027139.316
2028139.416
2029139.616

Pine Warbler Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Pine Warbler in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Holt5220241993
Elamville4320241984
Liberty City 23820242017
Borden Springs 23820242001
Warrior Std3420241966
Epes2720241981
Smyer Lake2420241966
Cottonton2220241966
Liberty1920221967
Blocton1920241969
Wedgeworth1920241979
Appleton1920231993
Eufaula1920241996
Perdido1820242021
Latham 21820242005
Seale1820171996
Escatawpa1620231983
Maytown1520231966
Brundidge1520211981
Mclellan1520241966
Latham1520001966
Liberty City1520111979
Borden Sprng1519981994
Bay Minette1520241996
Billingsley1320221966

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Other States

arkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.