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Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesForest birds

Pine Warbler in Pennsylvania has surged: up 723% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+723%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pine Warbler Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Pine Warbler in Pennsylvania. See the full index history below.

Pine Warbler Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 57% by 2030 — from 0.22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.24–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+57%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.24–0.4595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 57% by 2030 — from 0.22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.24–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.320.210.43
20270.330.220.43
20280.330.230.44
20290.340.230.44
20300.340.240.45

Pine Warbler Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Pine Warbler in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pocono Summit520241967
Clear Spring520251989
Canadensis420241992
Virginia319741972
Sproul Sf-A320232005
Teepleville220222004
Sigel219991999
Pocono Summit 2220072007
Rosecrans220221977
Rush220212021
Millville220181998
Honesdale220241993
Stoneybreak220251992
Bendersville219921992
Naginey220251973
Jacobus220221992
New Ringgold220252025
Normalville219731972
West Grove219921992
Sproul Sf-B220222016
Ltl Pine Cr220251991
Espyville120222001
Ellenton119971988
Wyalusing120112010
Whig Hill120232023

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.