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Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Pine Warbler in Virginia has edged up: up 24% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+24%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pine Warbler Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Pine Warbler in Virginia. See the full index history below.

Pine Warbler Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Virginia is projected to rise about 39% by 2030 — from 4.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 4.1–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+39%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.1–8.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Virginia is projected to rise about 39% by 2030 — from 4.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 4.1–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.04.07.9
20276.04.08.0
20286.04.18.0
20296.14.18.0
20306.14.18.1

Pine Warbler Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Pine Warbler in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Branchville4020241966
Truhart3520241996
Walkers2920231992
Brandon2820251992
Church Road2220251966
Brodnax2220251973
White Stone1920251966
Pw Forest Pk1920091992
Mannboro1720251967
Newsoms1720241969
Chincoteag W1620241992
Newville1520241988
Carters Brdg 21220252015
Ringgold1020251983
Glenwood1020231992
Covesville920251967
Hall920251967
Waverly919871967
Cornland920141975
Quinby820251966
Gloucester820251992
Cape Charles720181992
Ft Pickett N719951993
Dismal Swamp620161992
Edinburg520251968

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.