BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Pine Warbler in Virginia has increased: up 41% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+41%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pine Warbler Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Pine Warbler in Virginia. See the full index history below.

Pine Warbler Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.2 (95% range 4.2–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.2–8.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.2 (95% range 4.2–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.04.18.0
20266.14.18.0
20276.14.28.1
20286.14.28.1
20296.24.28.1

Pine Warbler Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Pine Warbler in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Branchville4020241966
Truhart3520241996
Brandon3120241992
Walkers2920231992
Brodnax2020241973
Pw Forest Pk1920091992
Newsoms1720241969
Gloucester1720241992
Chincoteag W1620241992
Church Road1520241966
Newville1520241988
Quinby1420241966
Surry1220241977
White Stone1120241966
Mannboro1020241967
Pungo1020241975
Glenwood1020231992
Waverly919871967
Cornland920141975
Cape Charles720181992
Ringgold720241983
Rural Retrt720241982
Ft Pickett N719951993
Dismal Swamp620161992
Carters Brdg 2620242015

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.