BirdAnalyst
Species · Indiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Indiana

All statesForest birds

Pine Warbler in Indiana has surged: up 380% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

+380%Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pine Warbler Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Pine Warbler in Indiana. See the full index history below.

Pine Warbler Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Indiana is projected to fall about 40% by 2030 — from 0.28 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-40%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Indiana is projected to fall about 40% by 2030 — from 0.28 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19832030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.170.000.39
20270.170.000.39
20280.170.000.39
20290.170.000.39
20300.170.000.39

Pine Warbler Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Pine Warbler in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hoosier1020251990
Celestine220251983
Cumback120251994
Clear Spring120152000
New Phila120231983
Corydon120212008
Scottsburg120072007
Belmont120221997

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoiskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.