Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pine Warbler Population Analysis

ParulidaeForest birdsSetophaga pinus

Pine Warbler has surged: up 160% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

About the Pine Warbler

The Pine Warbler (Setophaga pinus) is a North American member of the Wood-Warblers (Parulidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
4.5–5.5 in long (11–14 cm) — a small, active songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 1,520 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 32 states, most concentrated in the Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Family
Parulidae · Forest birds

Notable Pine Warbler TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

Pine Warbler has surged in surveyed states: up 160% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Pine Warbler Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler is projected to rise about 20% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 2.6–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler is projected to rise about 20% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 2.6–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.02.53.5
20273.02.53.5
20283.12.63.6
20293.12.63.6
20303.12.63.6

Where the Pine Warbler Is Detected

BBS routes recording Pine Warbler, sized by most recent count.

Pine Warbler Population Trend by State

Pine Warbler population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama+260%1968107
Arkansas+234%196947
Connecticut32×198019
Delaware+412%196816
Florida+23%1968103
Georgia+392%1968111
Illinois-9%19758
Indiana+380%19868
Kentucky+34%196938
Louisiana+74%196960
Maine82×197358
Maryland+277%196852
Massachusetts+549%196828
Michigan45×196978
Minnesota+376%196934
Mississippi+382%196862
Missouri13×197331
New Hampshire55×196823
New Jersey+341%196829
New York14×196876
North Carolina+136%1968104
Ohio+694%198516
Oklahoma+958%196913
Pennsylvania+723%197070
Rhode Island+548%19685
South Carolina+304%196850
Tennessee17×196846
Texas+177%196946
Vermont26×196922
Virginia+24%196876
West Virginia-47%196824
Wisconsin22×196860

Pine Warbler Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Pine Warbler population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Boreal Hardwood Transition14×1968118
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain12×197436
Atlantic Northern Forest60×1968120
Oaks and Prairies+452%197817
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie+153%20086
Prairie Hardwood Transition13×196954
Central Hardwoods17×1968101
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas+210%1969104
Mississippi Alluvial Valley+319%197118
Southeastern Coastal Plain+212%1968344
Appalachian Mountains+103%1968249
Piedmont+323%1968137
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast+437%1968148
Peninsular Florida+40%196858
Gulf Coastal Prairie+159%197110

Pine Warbler Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 160% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.