BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pine Warbler In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Pine Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 60× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

60×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
117Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Warbler has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 60× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Pine Warbler In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 5.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.6 (95% range 2.8–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–6.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 5.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.6 (95% range 2.8–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.22.56.0
20264.32.66.1
20274.42.76.2
20284.52.86.3
20294.62.86.4

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Pine Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BrooksMAINE202019
MarlboroVERMONT182024
FitzwilliamNEW-HAMPSHIRE172024
CharlestonMAINE152019
WinnMAINE152022
Mt ChocoruaNEW-HAMPSHIRE152024
TurnerMAINE142010
CanterburyNEW-HAMPSHIRE142024
WilmotNEW-HAMPSHIRE142024
ReedsMAINE132024
AuroraMAINE132021
Carrying PlMAINE132024
N OrangeMASSACHUSETTS132024
ConcordNEW-HAMPSHIRE132024
LempsterNEW-HAMPSHIRE132024
HopkintonNEW-HAMPSHIRE122024
GreenwoodMAINE112024
MedwayMAINE112018
Turner 2MAINE112024
Bowdoin CtrMAINE102021
CornvilleMAINE102024
DegrasseNEW-YORK102024
WestbrookMAINE92024
East TroyMAINE92019
Brownfield 2MAINE92024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.