BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pine Warbler In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Pine Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 60× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

60×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
120Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Warbler has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 60× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Pine Warbler In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 7.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 3.0–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.3%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.0–6.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 7.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 3.0–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.3%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.52.66.4
20274.62.76.5
20284.72.86.6
20294.82.96.7
20304.93.06.8

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Pine Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FitzwilliamNEW-HAMPSHIRE232025
CanterburyNEW-HAMPSHIRE232025
N OrangeMASSACHUSETTS202025
Mt ChocoruaNEW-HAMPSHIRE202025
Carrying PlMAINE182025
LempsterNEW-HAMPSHIRE182025
BrooksMAINE172021
Turner 2MAINE162025
MarlboroVERMONT162025
WalpoleNEW-HAMPSHIRE152025
GlenNEW-HAMPSHIRE152025
TurnerMAINE142010
Brownfield 2MAINE142025
WilmotNEW-HAMPSHIRE142025
AuroraMAINE132021
Jefferson HlNEW-HAMPSHIRE122025
ReedsMAINE112025
CornvilleMAINE112025
DegrasseNEW-YORK112025
Bowdoin CtrMAINE102021
EastbrookMAINE102025
Cummington 2MASSACHUSETTS102025
WestbrookMAINE92024
GreenwoodMAINE92025
HartfordMAINE92025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.