BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pine Warbler In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainForest birds

Pine Warbler in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 223% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+223%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
343Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Warbler has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 223% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 12–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 12–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025141117
2026141117
2027141217
2028151217
2029151217

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Pine Warbler in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SandhillsSOUTH-CAROLINA702024
Trace ChoctawMISSISSIPPI632019
HoltALABAMA522024
DibervilleMISSISSIPPI471987
DeepstepGEORGIA462023
Green SwampNORTH-CAROLINA452006
ElamvilleALABAMA432024
MontagueNORTH-CAROLINA422024
WeberGEORGIA412024
Eglin A.F.B.FLORIDA402011
Trace AttalaMISSISSIPPI402019
BranchvilleVIRGINIA402024
Cypress LakesNORTH-CAROLINA392024
De SotoMISSISSIPPI372019
Sandy CreekMISSISSIPPI372000
Chowan RiverNORTH-CAROLINA372006
OsceolaFLORIDA362024
Warrior StdALABAMA342024
ShallotteNORTH-CAROLINA341991
LacombeLOUISIANA331983
Trace NorthMISSISSIPPI332018
KingstreeSOUTH-CAROLINA322010
Trace LormanMISSISSIPPI302019
BlackwaterFLORIDA292024
LovedaleFLORIDA292011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.