BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pine Warbler In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Pine Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1974.

14×Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Warbler has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Pine Warbler In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 0.42 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.29–0.85). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+37%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.57Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.29–0.8595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 0.42 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.29–0.85). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.530.240.81
20260.540.260.82
20270.550.270.83
20280.560.280.84
20290.570.290.85

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Pine Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HopkintonNEW-YORK52021
PulaskiNEW-YORK42024
ParishvilleNEW-YORK42024
W ShokanNEW-YORK32019
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK32024
BalmatNEW-YORK32008
Canadice LNEW-YORK22024
PenfieldNEW-YORK22022
OneidaNEW-YORK22010
TeeplevillePENNSYLVANIA22022
BristolVERMONT22016
RhinebeckNEW-YORK12017
HighlandNEW-YORK12003
AusterlitzNEW-YORK12024
CatskillsNEW-YORK12006
GhentNEW-YORK12008
BranchportNEW-YORK12024
MendonNEW-YORK12018
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK12017
HamburgNEW-YORK12024
NashvilleNEW-YORK12018
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK12013
N Victory 2NEW-YORK12009
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK12024
WatertownNEW-YORK12012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.