BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pine Warbler In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Pine Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1974.

12×Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Pine Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Pine Warbler In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 0.47 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.30–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.58Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.30–0.8695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 0.47 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.30–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.530.250.81
20270.540.260.82
20280.560.280.83
20290.570.290.84
20300.580.300.86

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Pine Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ParishvilleNEW-YORK52025
HopkintonNEW-YORK52021
North PownalVERMONT52025
PulaskiNEW-YORK42024
W ShokanNEW-YORK32019
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK32025
BalmatNEW-YORK32008
BristolVERMONT32025
Canadice LNEW-YORK22024
HamburgNEW-YORK22025
PenfieldNEW-YORK22022
OneidaNEW-YORK22010
OgdensburgNEW-YORK22025
TeeplevillePENNSYLVANIA22022
RhinebeckNEW-YORK12017
HighlandNEW-YORK12003
AusterlitzNEW-YORK12025
CatskillsNEW-YORK12006
GhentNEW-YORK12008
BranchportNEW-YORK12024
MendonNEW-YORK12018
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK12017
NashvilleNEW-YORK12018
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK12013
N Victory 2NEW-YORK12009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.