BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pine Warbler In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesForest birds

Pine Warbler in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 468% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+468%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Warbler has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 468% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Pine Warbler In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 60% by 2029 — from 0.28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.44 (95% range 0.22–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+60%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.44Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.22–0.6795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 60% by 2029 — from 0.28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.44 (95% range 0.22–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.410.190.63
20260.420.200.64
20270.430.210.65
20280.440.220.66
20290.440.220.67

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Pine Warbler in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Oak GroveTEXAS71999
LydiaTEXAS62023
Oak Grove 2TEXAS42024
Massey LakeTEXAS32024
PaigeTEXAS32024
HearneTEXAS22022
GauseTEXAS11970
Miller GroveTEXAS12006
DikeTEXAS12024
GainesvilleTEXAS12021
CayugaTEXAS12024
CarlosTEXAS12018
Mount ZionTEXAS12024
BurtonTEXAS12017
BonnerTEXAS12009
Wills PointTEXAS12011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.