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Species · Louisiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesForest birds

Pine Warbler in Louisiana has risen sharply: up 71% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+71%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pine Warbler Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Warbler has risen sharply in Louisiana: up 71% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Pine Warbler Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Louisiana is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.3 (95% range 4.6–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.6–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Louisiana is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.3 (95% range 4.6–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.14.312
20268.14.412
20278.24.412
20288.34.512
20298.34.612

Pine Warbler Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Pine Warbler in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Natchez4920241992
Ivan 23920162014
Mount Union3820241998
Evelyn3620242004
Carterville3419921992
Lacombe3319831967
Many3219921989
Clay2920241968
Norwood2820242004
Burr Ferry2820241987
Hargis 22720142013
Fishville 22720242018
Ivan2620131998
Fishville2620171967
Goodwill2520242004
Easton2419901967
Derry 22320241990
Flat Creek2220241998
Fort Jessup2120231998
Derry2119891967
Linville1720241998
Trout1720241988
Womack1720241999
Longstreet1620241967
Pearl River1620241989

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.