BirdAnalyst
Species · Wisconsin · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Wisconsin

All statesForest birds

Pine Warbler in Wisconsin has surged: up 22× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

22×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pine Warbler Trends in WisconsinNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Warbler has surged in Wisconsin: up 22× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Pine Warbler Population Forecast in Wisconsin

If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Wisconsin is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 2.5–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Wisconsin is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 2.5–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.02.33.7
20263.02.43.7
20273.12.43.8
20283.22.53.8
20293.22.53.9

Pine Warbler Survey Routes in Wisconsin

Routes recording Pine Warbler in Wisconsin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Land O Lakes2420161967
Wausaukee2420241980
Conover2120241998
Eagle River1820241966
Hatfield1719981970
Amberg1420241981
Grand View1320241966
Pigeon Creek1320241999
Mcnaughton1320241970
Land O' Lakes 21320242017
Union Twp1020241975
Shanagolden920241975
Cumberland920241966
Irma920241969
Bayfield820241967
Mather820231966
Rhinelander820231998
Iron River720241970
Cadott720241975
Couderay620191969
Exeland620241972
Oconto Falls620191968
Popple River420241976
Unity420242006
Stevens Pt320231999

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.