BirdAnalyst
Species · Wisconsin · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Wisconsin

All statesForest birds

Pine Warbler in Wisconsin has surged: up 22× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

22×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pine Warbler Trends in WisconsinNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Warbler has surged in Wisconsin: up 22× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Pine Warbler Population Forecast in Wisconsin

If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Wisconsin is projected to rise about 26% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 2.6–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+26%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.6–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Wisconsin is projected to rise about 26% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 2.6–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.02.33.7
20273.12.43.7
20283.12.43.8
20293.22.53.8
20303.22.63.9

Pine Warbler Survey Routes in Wisconsin

Routes recording Pine Warbler in Wisconsin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Conover2620251998
Land O Lakes2420161967
Bashaw2320252003
Land O' Lakes 22220252017
Eagle River1720251966
Hatfield1719981970
Wausaukee1420251980
Mcnaughton1320241970
Popple River1020251976
Grand View920251966
Pigeon Creek820251999
Mather820231966
Rhinelander820231998
Minong720251967
Bayfield720251967
Iron River620251970
Amberg620251981
Oconto Falls620191968
Shanagolden520251975
Irma520251969
Cadott520251975
Union Twp420251975
Cavour420251999
Exeland320251972
Unity320252006

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.