BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Pine Warbler in Minnesota has surged: up 487% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+487%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pine Warbler Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Warbler has surged in Minnesota: up 487% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Pine Warbler Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Minnesota is projected to rise about 40% by 2029 — from 0.69 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.97 (95% range 0.59–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+40%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.97Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.59–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Minnesota is projected to rise about 40% by 2029 — from 0.69 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.97 (95% range 0.59–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.910.531.3
20260.920.551.3
20270.940.561.3
20280.950.581.3
20290.970.591.3

Pine Warbler Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Pine Warbler in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Blackduck2320222004
Cass Lake620161980
Evergreen620241969
Cohasset620221975
Hart Lake520241975
Bigfork520241995
Hovland419951991
Mahtowa420231994
Chisholm420242019
Nebish320231982
Cromwell320241996
Sawbill Lndg320241987
Nett Lake320182013
Babbitt320231998
Glendale320241993
Tamarac Nwr220241991
Backus220241967
Pine River220231971
Sherry Lake220212001
Lude220111979
Jordan220162004
Red Lake219941994
Minnetonka120092009
Princeton120052005
Wigwam Bay119951976

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.