BirdAnalyst
Species · Mississippi · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesForest birds

Pine Warbler in Mississippi has surged: up 374% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+374%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pine Warbler Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Warbler has surged in Mississippi: up 374% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Pine Warbler Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Mississippi is projected to rise about 53% by 2029 — from 6.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 5.5–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+53%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.5–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±77.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Mississippi is projected to rise about 53% by 2029 — from 6.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 5.5–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.65.114
20269.75.214
20279.85.314
20289.95.414
2029105.515

Pine Warbler Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Pine Warbler in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Trace Choctaw6320192012
Diberville4719871979
Trace Attala4020192016
Sandy Creek3720001993
De Soto3720192008
Trace North3320182008
Trace Lorman3020192016
Corinth2320241973
Embry2220241988
Duck Hill2120241968
Grenada Lake2120191997
Trace Lee2120182013
Duffee1620071973
Latimer 21620232021
Mt Carmel1520161974
Trace Chickasaw1420242012
Scooba 21319871983
Lucien1220081967
Walthall1219871970
Amite River1220132008
Latimer1220191988
Neely1120121974
Holly Springs1120242009
Necaise1120221982
Star1020242016

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.