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Species · Mississippi · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesForest birds

Pine Warbler in Mississippi has surged: up 382% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+382%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pine Warbler Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Warbler has surged in Mississippi: up 382% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Pine Warbler Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Mississippi is projected to rise about 72% by 2030 — from 5.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.9 (95% range 5.3–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+72%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.3–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±95.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Mississippi is projected to rise about 72% by 2030 — from 5.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.9 (95% range 5.3–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.44.914
20279.55.014
20289.75.114
20299.85.214
20309.95.314

Pine Warbler Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Pine Warbler in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Trace Choctaw6320192012
Diberville4719871979
Trace Attala4020192016
Sandy Creek3720001993
De Soto3720192008
Trace North3320182008
Trace Lorman3020192016
Corinth2120251973
Grenada Lake2120191997
Trace Lee2120182013
Embry1820251988
Duffee1620071973
Latimer 21620232021
Mt Carmel1520161974
Duck Hill1420251968
Trace Chickasaw1320252012
Scooba 21319871983
Lucien1220081967
Walthall1219871970
Trace Central1220252007
Amite River1220132008
Latimer1220191988
Neely1120121974
Holly Springs1120242009
Necaise1120221982

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.