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Species · South Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pine Warbler Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesForest birds

Pine Warbler in South Carolina has surged: up 353% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+353%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pine Warbler Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Warbler has surged in South Carolina: up 353% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Pine Warbler Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in South Carolina is projected to rise about 52% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 13–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+52%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in South Carolina is projected to rise about 52% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 13–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025201228
2026201228
2027201228
2028201228
2029211329

Pine Warbler Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Pine Warbler in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sandhills7020241994
Plum Branch4920241977
Ridgeway4220212010
Kingstree3220102010
Little Mtn2919881966
Walterboro2720171970
Mount Pisgah2620211998
Cauthens Xrd2520211982
Barton Creek2020221968
Kiawah Island1920241998
Ward1820212017
Hardeeville1620241967
Green Sea1520242019
Battlecreek1520231999
Rome1420241967
Holly Hill1420241972
Greenwood1320191998
Salem1220242010
Adams Run1220241988
Boykin Ml Pd1019681966
Salem Xrd1020191982
Owings1020041992
Whitmire1020242010
Foreston920191971
Campobello920242010

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandtennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.