BirdAnalyst
Species · South Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pine Warbler Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesForest birds

Pine Warbler in South Carolina has surged: up 304% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+304%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pine Warbler Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Warbler has surged in South Carolina: up 304% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Pine Warbler Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in South Carolina is projected to rise about 65% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 20 (95% range 12–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+65%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in South Carolina is projected to rise about 65% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 20 (95% range 12–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026191128
2027201128
2028201228
2029201228
2030201228

Pine Warbler Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Pine Warbler in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sandhills5320251994
Plum Branch3420251977
Kingstree3220102010
Little Mtn2919881966
Coward2620251966
Cauthens Xrd2520211982
Nixville2420251998
Barton Creek2020221968
Kiawah Island2020251998
Ridgeway1920252010
Mount Pisgah1620251998
Holly Hill1420251972
Salem1320252010
Dale1320251998
Hardeeville1220251967
New Ellenton1220252010
Green Sea1220252019
Greenwood1120251998
Boykin Ml Pd1019681966
Salem Xrd1020191982
Owings1020041992
Whitmire1020242010
Owings 21020252005
Foreston920191971
Campobello920252010

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandtennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.