BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesForest birds

Pine Warbler in Kentucky has increased: up 42% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+42%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pine Warbler Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Pine Warbler in Kentucky. See the full index history below.

Pine Warbler Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Kentucky is projected to rise about 46% by 2029 — from 0.61 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.89 (95% range 0.32–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+46%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.89Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.32–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±76.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Kentucky is projected to rise about 46% by 2029 — from 0.61 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.89 (95% range 0.32–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.840.281.4
20260.850.291.4
20270.860.301.4
20280.870.311.4
20290.890.321.4

Pine Warbler Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Pine Warbler in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pine Ridge1419661966
Beattyville 2620242006
Mckee420241978
Paintsville419951979
Apex320242005
Mammoth Cave North320132009
Carter320241976
Campton320191982
Monticello220221968
Levee219821969
Gatewood220111985
Kehoe219821982
Staffordsvil219971996
Levee 2220172008
Hodgenville 2220232008
Brownsville120242023
Cumberlnd Gp120161966
Lovelacevile120001989
Shiloh120131992
Canton120181970
Riverqueen120152015
Mammoth Cave120141995
Hegira120231991
Sunnybrook120141969
Pippa Passes119881988

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianalouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.