BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Pine Warbler in Texas has surged: up 145% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+145%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pine Warbler Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Warbler has surged in Texas: up 145% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Pine Warbler Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Texas is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.0–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Texas is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.0–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.50.914.1
20262.50.944.1
20272.50.964.1
20282.60.994.1
20292.61.04.2

Pine Warbler Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Pine Warbler in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
New Waverly5920241969
Powell Park 25120242022
Livingston4920241969
Powell Park4820211995
Union Hill4020241994
Caledonia3720241970
Diboll3620241968
Crossroads3520241967
Weches3420241995
Alexander St3120241995
Big Sandy Bith2820242015
Easton 22620242014
Fred1920241995
Smyrna1920101995
Town Bluff1620241967
Mt. Selman1620241998
Morton1320241972
Liberty Hill1320231971
Bon Wier1220241996
Easton1220131994
Lance Rosier Bith1020192014
Smyrna 21020232011
Oak Grove719991967
Athens720241970
Chandler 2620242005

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.