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Species · Florida · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Florida

All statesForest birds

Pine Warbler in Florida has edged up: up 23% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+23%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
103Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pine Warbler Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Pine Warbler in Florida. See the full index history below.

Pine Warbler Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Florida is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 7.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.7 (95% range 6.2–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.2–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Florida is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 7.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.7 (95% range 6.2–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.56.013
20279.56.113
20289.66.113
20299.66.113
20309.76.213

Pine Warbler Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Pine Warbler in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Citrus8220252010
Olustee4020251992
Eglin A.F.B.4020111995
Goethe3420252010
Pinelands3120241990
Blackwater3020251987
Lovedale2920111987
Seminole Hills 22520222002
Alligator Pt1920251987
New Hope1820112009
Ocala1820251987
Mossy Head1720111966
Babcock Rnch1719901988
Miccosukee1620251966
Seminole Hls1620001967
Miller Xrds1520191987
Apalachicola1520251987
Chassahowitz1420251996
Croom1320251987
Telogia1119851968
Belmore1120241966
Callahan1120241987
Sanderson 21120242022
Webb1120251990
Blountstown1020241966

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.