BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Florida

All statesForest birds

Pine Warbler in Florida has increased: up 26% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+26%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
103Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pine Warbler Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Pine Warbler in Florida. See the full index history below.

Pine Warbler Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Florida is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 8.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.8 (95% range 6.3–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.3–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Florida is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 8.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.8 (95% range 6.3–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.66.113
20269.66.213
20279.76.213
20289.76.313
20299.86.313

Pine Warbler Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Pine Warbler in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Citrus5220242010
Eglin A.F.B.4020111995
Osceola3620241991
Goethe3320242010
Pinelands3120241990
Blackwater2920241987
Ocala2920241987
Lovedale2920111987
Chassahowitz2820241996
Olustee2620221992
Seminole Hills 22520222002
Miccosukee1820241966
New Hope1820112009
Mossy Head1720111966
Babcock Rnch1719901988
Seminole Hls1620001967
Betts1620241988
Bloxham1620221987
Webb1620241990
Miller Xrds1520191987
Apalachicola1320241987
Telogia1119851968
Belmore1120241966
Callahan1120241987
Island Grove1120241992

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.