BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

Pine Warbler in Tennessee has surged: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

18×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pine Warbler Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Warbler has surged in Tennessee: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Pine Warbler Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Tennessee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.4 (95% range 1.6–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–3.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Tennessee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.4 (95% range 1.6–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.21.53.0
20262.31.53.0
20272.31.53.0
20282.31.63.1
20292.41.63.1

Pine Warbler Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Pine Warbler in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Collinwood1120241984
Mecca1120231994
Moscow1020241968
Big Sandy920241987
Sweetlips920231968
Trace Collinwood920182015
Harbuck720231994
Jones Gap620191982
Mansfield620241991
Silerton620241985
Mcfarland419931967
Union Hill320241974
Walland319891966
Tellico320231995
Signal Mtn220231979
Trenton220222022
Wrigley220222001
Jasper220241967
Mt Olive220171975
Allens Brdge220221966
Willis Sprng220231994
Cades Cove220241990
Trace Lewis220172017
Tiptonville120152007
Brownsville120182018

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.