BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pine Warbler Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Pine Warbler in New York has surged: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

14×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pine Warbler Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Warbler has surged in New York: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Pine Warbler Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in New York is projected to rise about 39% by 2030 — from 0.85 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.79–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+39%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.79–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in New York is projected to rise about 39% by 2030 — from 0.85 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.79–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.701.5
20271.10.731.5
20281.10.751.5
20291.20.771.5
20301.20.791.6

Pine Warbler Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Pine Warbler in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Degrasse1120251982
Westhampton620241987
Hauppauge620121969
Warrensburg520191978
Parishville520252005
Hopkinton520211980
Pulaski420241986
Wanakena420251989
W Shokan320191997
Underwood 2320062005
Philadelphia320251987
Balmat320081980
Manorville220241966
Middletown220131969
Mcdonough220171967
Phillips Cr220252001
Horseshoe L.220172011
Canadice L220242004
Hamburg220252010
Penfield220222018
Mckeever220231970
St Regis Fls220171993
Highmarket220251977
Oneida220102010
Inlet220172009

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.