BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pine Warbler Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Pine Warbler in New York has surged: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

15×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pine Warbler Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Warbler has surged in New York: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Pine Warbler Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in New York is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 0.92 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.79–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.79–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in New York is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 0.92 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.79–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.701.5
20261.10.721.5
20271.10.751.5
20281.20.771.5
20291.20.791.6

Pine Warbler Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Pine Warbler in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Degrasse1020241982
Westhampton620241987
Hauppauge620121969
Warrensburg520191978
Gabriels520211976
Hopkinton520211980
Pulaski420241986
Parishville420242005
W Shokan320191997
Highmarket320241977
Underwood 2320062005
Wanakena320241989
Philadelphia320241987
Balmat320081980
Manorville220241966
Middletown220131969
Mcdonough220171967
Horseshoe L.220172011
Canadice L220242004
Penfield220222018
Mckeever220231970
St Regis Fls220171993
Oneida220102010
Inlet220172009
S Horicon220171968

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.