BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Vermont

All statesForest birds

Pine Warbler in Vermont has surged: up 22× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

22×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pine Warbler Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Warbler has surged in Vermont: up 22× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Pine Warbler Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Vermont is projected to fall about 47% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.37–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-47%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.37–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Vermont is projected to fall about 47% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.37–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.272.1
20261.20.292.1
20271.20.322.1
20281.30.342.2
20291.30.372.2

Pine Warbler Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Pine Warbler in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Marlboro1820242014
Middlesex620241999
East Haven520161968
Stratton420242006
Fletcher420241985
S Reading320231968
Post Mills320241967
Hardwick320241981
Gaysville220192001
East Calais220241981
Stowe220232023
Bristol220162016
North Pownal120231974
Landgrove120222022
Shaftsbury120221991
S Wallingfrd119741974
W Rutland120242018
St Johnsbury120241992
Greensboro120242008
Colchester120231986
Newbury 2120222008

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.