BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Vermont

All statesForest birds

Pine Warbler in Vermont has surged: up 26× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

26×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pine Warbler Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Warbler has surged in Vermont: up 26× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Pine Warbler Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Vermont is projected to fall about 54% by 2030 — from 3.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.41–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-54%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.41–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Vermont is projected to fall about 54% by 2030 — from 3.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.41–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.40.302.4
20271.40.332.5
20281.40.362.5
20291.40.382.5
20301.50.412.5

Pine Warbler Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Pine Warbler in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Marlboro1620252014
Gaysville820252001
North Pownal520251974
East Calais520251981
Middlesex420251999
Fletcher420251985
Stratton320252006
S Reading320231968
Hardwick320241981
Bristol320252016
Post Mills220251967
St Johnsbury220251992
Greensboro220252008
Stowe220232023
Landgrove120252022
Shaftsbury120221991
S Wallingfrd119741974
W Rutland120252018
East Haven120251968
Northfld Fls120252025
Colchester120231986
Newbury 2120222008

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.