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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pine Warbler Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Pine Warbler in North Carolina has surged: up 136% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+136%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
104Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pine Warbler Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Warbler has surged in North Carolina: up 136% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Pine Warbler Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 11 (95% range 5.4–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.4–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 11 (95% range 5.4–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026115.116
2027115.216
2028115.316
2029115.416
2030115.416

Pine Warbler Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Pine Warbler in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cypress Lakes4620252004
Green Swamp4520062002
Youngsville4120251966
Montague3720251990
Chowan River3720062002
Shallotte3419911966
Arcola3420251971
Raeford3220251990
Supply2920251992
California2820131972
Maple Hill2820231995
Newport2620231995
Jackson2520171995
Rheasville2520172005
Uwharrie Nf2520011993
Broad Creek2420251993
Washington2420252001
California 22120252014
Bullock2120251997
Spring Hope2020252002
Osmond1920252001
Gupton1820252001
Sheep Ridge1820251994
Beargrass1719811968
Hamlet1620251995

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorkohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.