BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pine Warbler Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Pine Warbler in North Carolina has surged: up 130% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+130%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
104Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pine Warbler Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Warbler has surged in North Carolina: up 130% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Pine Warbler Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in North Carolina is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 9.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 5.4–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.4–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in North Carolina is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 9.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 5.4–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025115.116
2026115.216
2027115.216
2028115.316
2029115.417

Pine Warbler Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Pine Warbler in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Green Swamp4520062002
Montague4220241990
Cypress Lakes3920242004
Chowan River3720062002
Shallotte3419911966
Youngsville3420241966
Arcola3120241971
Broad Creek2920241993
California2820131972
Maple Hill2820231995
Sheep Ridge2720241994
Speed2620241968
Newport2620231995
Jackson2520171995
Rheasville2520172005
Uwharrie Nf2520011993
Supply2220241992
Gupton2220242001
Spring Hope2220242002
California 22020242014
Beargrass1719811968
Wilgrove1720241995
Washington1720242001
Myrtle Grove1620241966
Cypress Cr1520221990

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorkohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.