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Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Ohio

All statesForest birds

Pine Warbler in Ohio has surged: up 789% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

+789%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pine Warbler Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Warbler has surged in Ohio: up 789% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

Pine Warbler Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Ohio is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 0.45 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.04–0.68). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.36Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.6895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Ohio is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 0.45 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.04–0.68). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.340.030.66
20260.350.030.67
20270.350.030.67
20280.350.040.67
20290.360.040.68

Pine Warbler Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Pine Warbler in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Zaleski S.F.620241992
Wayne N.F.520241992
Shawnee S.F.320001992
Tar Hollow320241992
Pike S.F.320021992
Mohican S.F.220241992
Shawnee S.F. 2220182001
Ray120241993
Scioto Trail120061992
Bolins Mills120231980
Ashley120092009
Dell120131993
Pomeroy119761976
Scioto Furn120151992
Greasy Ridge119911976
Wilgus119931993

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaoklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.