BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Pine Warbler in Arkansas has surged: up 223% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+223%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pine Warbler Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Warbler has surged in Arkansas: up 223% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Pine Warbler Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Arkansas is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 9.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 8.1–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+37%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.1–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Arkansas is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 9.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 8.1–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025127.516
2026127.616
2027127.817
2028127.917
2029128.117

Pine Warbler Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Pine Warbler in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Waldron5020241967
Four Lakes4020011994
Princeton 23520222022
Sims3320242010
Magazine Mtn3220211993
Ozark Nf2120241991
Locust Bayou2020231967
Dry Fork 22020242024
Lurton1920231967
Stephens1920242010
Hatfield 21720242017
Princeton1720211998
Hollywood1620241967
Dry Fork1620232000
Ashdown1520231967
Blakely1519991968
Ramsey1419971967
Stark1420241968
Lockesburg1420192010
Poyen1320071967
Hope1220241967
Zion1220231976
Old Milo1120241967
Marshall1120212011
Springhill1120222010

Pine Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.