BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pine Warbler In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Pine Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

14×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Warbler has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Pine Warbler In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.57 (95% range 0.37–0.78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.57Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.37–0.7895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.57 (95% range 0.37–0.78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.540.330.74
20260.550.340.75
20270.550.350.76
20280.560.360.77
20290.570.370.78

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Pine Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HatfieldWISCONSIN171998
Pigeon CreekWISCONSIN132024
CumberlandWISCONSIN92024
MatherWISCONSIN82023
CadottWISCONSIN72024
EvergreenMINNESOTA62024
Oconto FallsWISCONSIN62019
Big Blue LkMICHIGAN42024
MontereyMICHIGAN42024
HungerfordMICHIGAN42024
UnityWISCONSIN42024
Stevens PtWISCONSIN32023
GreshamWISCONSIN32024
RemusMICHIGAN22024
LoraineWISCONSIN22021
WeyerhauserWISCONSIN22024
ElderonWISCONSIN22021
ScottvilleMICHIGAN12024
BravoMICHIGAN12023
New TroyMICHIGAN12023
Big RapidsMICHIGAN11989
NashvilleMICHIGAN12023
GalesburgMICHIGAN12023
OlaMICHIGAN12013
HomerMICHIGAN12011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.