BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pine Warbler In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Pine Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

13×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Pine Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Pine Warbler In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 0.48 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.38–0.78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.58Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.38–0.7895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 0.48 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.38–0.78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.540.340.74
20270.550.350.75
20280.560.360.76
20290.570.370.77
20300.580.380.78

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Pine Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HatfieldWISCONSIN171998
MatherWISCONSIN82023
Pigeon CreekWISCONSIN82025
HungerfordMICHIGAN72025
Oconto FallsWISCONSIN62019
ScottvilleMICHIGAN52025
CadottWISCONSIN52025
Big Blue LkMICHIGAN32025
UnityWISCONSIN32025
Stevens PtWISCONSIN32023
RemusMICHIGAN22025
No BradleyMICHIGAN22025
EvergreenMINNESOTA22025
LoraineWISCONSIN22021
CumberlandWISCONSIN22025
WeyerhauserWISCONSIN22024
ElderonWISCONSIN22021
SaxevilleWISCONSIN22025
BravoMICHIGAN12023
New TroyMICHIGAN12023
Big RapidsMICHIGAN11989
NashvilleMICHIGAN12023
GalesburgMICHIGAN12023
MontereyMICHIGAN12025
OlaMICHIGAN12013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.