BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pine Warbler In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

Pine Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has surged: up 210% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+210%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
104Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Warbler has surged in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 210% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Pine Warbler In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 20% by 2030 — from 20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 24 (95% range 18–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
18–3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 20% by 2030 — from 20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 24 (95% range 18–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026231629
2027231729
2028231730
2029241730
2030241830

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Pine Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ouachita NfOKLAHOMA882025
WaldronARKANSAS602025
Hee MountainOKLAHOMA592024
Powell ParkTEXAS482021
Powell Park 2TEXAS432025
PushmatahaOKLAHOMA412023
Four LakesARKANSAS402001
Union HillTEXAS402024
Alexander StTEXAS372025
EvelynLOUISIANA362024
Princeton 2ARKANSAS352022
CartervilleLOUISIANA341992
ManyLOUISIANA321992
NatchezLOUISIANA312025
WechesTEXAS312025
Burr FerryLOUISIANA302025
DibollTEXAS302025
Big CedarOKLAHOMA292024
Mt. HermanOKLAHOMA292022
LivingstonTEXAS282025
Big Sandy BithTEXAS282024
Fishville 2LOUISIANA272025
Hargis 2LOUISIANA272014
CaledoniaTEXAS272025
SimsARKANSAS262025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.