BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pine Warbler In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

Pine Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has surged: up 203% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+203%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
104Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Warbler has surged in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 203% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Pine Warbler In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 24 (95% range 17–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
17–3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 24 (95% range 17–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025231629
2026231729
2027231730
2028231730
2029241730

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Pine Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ouachita NfOKLAHOMA912024
Hee MountainOKLAHOMA592024
New WaverlyTEXAS592024
Powell Park 2TEXAS512024
WaldronARKANSAS502024
NatchezLOUISIANA492024
LivingstonTEXAS492024
Powell ParkTEXAS482021
PushmatahaOKLAHOMA412023
Four LakesARKANSAS402001
Union HillTEXAS402024
Ivan 2LOUISIANA392016
Mount UnionLOUISIANA382024
CaledoniaTEXAS372024
EvelynLOUISIANA362024
DibollTEXAS362024
Princeton 2ARKANSAS352022
CrossroadsTEXAS352024
CartervilleLOUISIANA341992
WechesTEXAS342024
SimsARKANSAS332024
Magazine MtnARKANSAS322021
ManyLOUISIANA321992
Alexander StTEXAS312024
ClayLOUISIANA292024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.