BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pine Warbler In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Pine Warbler in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 103% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+103%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
249Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Warbler has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 103% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Pine Warbler In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 54% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 1.2–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+54%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 54% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 1.2–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.51.12.0
20271.61.12.0
20281.61.12.0
20291.61.12.0
20301.61.22.1

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Pine Warbler in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Borden Springs 2ALABAMA382024
Borden SprngALABAMA151998
Pine RidgeKENTUCKY141966
GreensportALABAMA132025
MaytownALABAMA112025
MeccaTENNESSEE112023
Sunny EveALABAMA102024
YoungtownALABAMA102025
MentoneALABAMA102023
TalladegaALABAMA102025
GlenwoodVIRGINIA102023
Smyer LakeALABAMA92025
KymulgaALABAMA92025
JasperALABAMA91999
Table RockNORTH-CAROLINA92022
OneontaALABAMA82025
RiversideALABAMA82013
OldtownMARYLAND82025
Piney GroveMARYLAND82025
BattlecreekSOUTH-CAROLINA82025
Pine GroveALABAMA72025
LakeviewALABAMA72025
DrummondALABAMA72024
ShannonGEORGIA72019
HarbuckTENNESSEE72023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.