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Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pine Warbler In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Pine Warbler in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

13×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
118Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Warbler has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Pine Warbler In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 4.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.1 (95% range 4.2–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.2–6.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 4.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.1 (95% range 4.2–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.83.95.7
20264.94.05.8
20275.04.15.9
20285.14.26.0
20295.14.26.0

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Pine Warbler in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Land O LakesWISCONSIN242016
WausaukeeWISCONSIN242024
BlackduckMINNESOTA232022
ConoverWISCONSIN212024
Eagle RiverWISCONSIN182024
Betchler LksMICHIGAN162024
Gibbs CityMICHIGAN142024
AmbergWISCONSIN142024
Grand ViewWISCONSIN132024
McnaughtonWISCONSIN132024
Land O' Lakes 2WISCONSIN132024
MuskallongeMICHIGAN122024
Red OakMICHIGAN122022
Cluster LakesMICHIGAN122010
Imp LakeMICHIGAN112019
Big Island LakeMICHIGAN112010
GooseneckMICHIGAN102010
Union TwpWISCONSIN102024
Seney NwrMICHIGAN92024
ShanagoldenWISCONSIN92024
IrmaWISCONSIN92024
TahquamenonMICHIGAN82024
IronsMICHIGAN81989
BayfieldWISCONSIN82024
RhinelanderWISCONSIN82023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.