BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pine Warbler In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Pine Warbler in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 437% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+437%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
148Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Warbler has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 437% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Pine Warbler In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 11 (95% range 7.9–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.9–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 11 (95% range 7.9–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
202610.07.313
2027107.513
2028107.613
2029107.813
2030117.913

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Pine Warbler in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Spraguetown 3NEW-JERSEY822025
PomonaNEW-JERSEY692025
Wellfleet 2MASSACHUSETTS592025
Casimir Pulaski SfRHODE-ISLAND522018
Furnace TownMARYLAND482025
MadisonMARYLAND472025
FriendshipNEW-JERSEY422025
HongaMARYLAND412025
CokesburyMARYLAND392025
TruhartVIRGINIA352024
MarionMASSACHUSETTS292025
WalkersVIRGINIA292023
BrandonVIRGINIA282025
Cape Cod NsMASSACHUSETTS242007
Estell ManorNEW-JERSEY242025
Ware RiverMASSACHUSETTS232022
PepperboxDELAWARE202016
Pepperbox 2DELAWARE202025
Forest GroveMARYLAND192023
MaynardMASSACHUSETTS192025
White StoneVIRGINIA192025
PrattvilleMASSACHUSETTS172019
Chincoteag WVIRGINIA162024
WinslowNEW-JERSEY152025
BerlinMARYLAND142025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.