BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pine Warbler In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

Pine Warbler in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 319% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+319%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Warbler has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 319% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Pine Warbler In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 110% by 2030 — from 0.22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.07–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+110%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.47Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–0.8695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±76.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 110% by 2030 — from 0.22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.07–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.450.060.84
20270.450.060.85
20280.460.070.85
20290.460.070.85
20300.470.070.86

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Pine Warbler in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GonzalesLOUISIANA102019
RoselandLOUISIANA52025
Tchula 3MISSISSIPPI32025
SaffellARKANSAS22018
River RoadLOUISIANA22023
EudoraARKANSAS12024
West TylerARKANSAS11971
HarrisburgARKANSAS12001
EnglandARKANSAS12024
Augusta 2ARKANSAS12010
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS12019
ShawLOUISIANA12023
Baton RougeLOUISIANA12024
CommerceMISSISSIPPI11991
TchulaMISSISSIPPI11975
Tchula 2MISSISSIPPI11993
Warren VickMISSISSIPPI12021
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.