BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pine Warbler In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieForest birds

Pine Warbler in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 159% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+159%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Warbler has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 159% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Pine Warbler In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.05–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.57Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Warbler in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.05–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.550.031.1
20270.550.031.1
20280.560.041.1
20290.560.051.1
20300.570.051.1

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Pine Warbler in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Vinton 2LOUISIANA142025
VintonLOUISIANA112009
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA52025
RichardLOUISIANA32024
HackberryLOUISIANA22005
LafitteLOUISIANA11975
WinnieTEXAS12025
StowellTEXAS12025
DanburyTEXAS12025
Port AcresTEXAS12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.