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Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bewick's Wren Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Bewick's Wren in Missouri has collapsed: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-93%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bewick's Wren Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bewick's Wren has collapsed in Missouri: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Bewick's Wren Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Bewick's Wren in Missouri is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.87). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±128.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±128.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bewick's Wren in Missouri is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.87). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±128.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.190.000.95
20260.170.000.93
20270.140.000.91
20280.120.000.89
20290.100.000.87

Bewick's Wren Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Bewick's Wren in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clementine420021974
Syracuse420241969
Trenton419671967
Filley320241976
Hayden320231975
Union319991990
Clementine 2320072005
Sweden220131968
Handley220221967
Washington219761967
Ohio220061978
Watson220212015
Williamsvill219941994
Barks220061994
Marshfield220081996
Osage Beach220231998
Norborne120152015
Peace Valley120111975
Cassville120191967
Pineville119881984
Cameron120232023
Cascade119981968
Ironton119731973
Akers120131967
Wesco120061973

Bewick's Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymarylandmississippinevadanew-mexiconorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.