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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bewick's Wren Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Bewick's Wren in Arkansas has fallen sharply: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-70%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
26YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bewick's Wren Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bewick's Wren has fallen sharply in Arkansas: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Bewick's Wren Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Bewick's Wren in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2020, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2020TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2020 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bewick's Wren in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2020, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672020
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20160.040.000.14
20170.040.000.14
20180.040.000.13
20190.040.000.13
20200.030.000.13

Bewick's Wren Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Bewick's Wren in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fulton319731969
Ramsey119731973
Stamps120011994
Magazine Mtn120152015
Poyen120021973
Coal Hill120011985
Lurton119921967
Massard119731967
Zion119861974
Compton119871968
Avoca119941976
Centerton120102010

Bewick's Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymarylandmississippimissourinevadanew-mexiconorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.