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Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bewick's Wren Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesForest birds

Bewick's Wren in Oklahoma has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-54%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bewick's Wren Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bewick's Wren has fallen sharply in Oklahoma: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Bewick's Wren Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Bewick's Wren in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 60% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.87–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±243.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+60%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.87–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±243.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bewick's Wren in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 60% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.87–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±243.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.70.864.5
20262.70.864.5
20272.70.864.5
20282.70.864.5
20292.70.874.5

Bewick's Wren Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Bewick's Wren in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Colony1519951995
Choctaw1020191969
Tatums1020241992
Duncan920241986
Mill Creek820181970
Phroso720241991
Mcalester619901968
Erick620241969
Rosston520181976
Woodward520241992
Wichita Mtns East420222004
Wichita Mtns419941994
Blanco320161968
Noble320241967
Grimes320241967
Barnsdall319771967
Douglas319981967
Matoy320001992
Pocola320081994
Heyburn320241994
Sickles320181992
Skiatook320191982
Phillips220081974
Reed220191968
Indianola220221969

Bewick's Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymarylandmississippimissourinevadanew-mexiconorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.