BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bewick's Wren Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Bewick's Wren in New Mexico has surged: up 210% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+210%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bewick's Wren Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bewick's Wren has surged in New Mexico: up 210% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Bewick's Wren Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Bewick's Wren in New Mexico is projected to rise about 71% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 1.4–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±141.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+71%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–5.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±141.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bewick's Wren in New Mexico is projected to rise about 71% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 1.4–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±141.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.41.35.5
20263.41.35.6
20273.51.45.6
20283.51.45.6
20293.51.45.6

Bewick's Wren Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Bewick's Wren in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Claunch3820001977
Pecos3520171973
Claunch 23020242001
La Cienega1820221972
Farmington1219831975
Mountainair1220241998
Emory Pass1120241993
Carrizozo1020241974
Aztec1019891988
Fence Lake920241975
Capitan Mtn.620151993
Queen620211993
La Plata 2520162014
Mcgaffey520231996
Sabinoso520211980
Tucumcari419751975
Magdalena420241997
Pinon420241994
Quemado319971995
Reserve320191995
Vicks Peak320241992
La Plata320121990
Sunshine Wll320231993
Nageesi220241971
Farley220241998

Bewick's Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymarylandmississippimissourinevadanorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.