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Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bewick's Wren Population Trend in Arizona

All statesForest birds

Bewick's Wren in Arizona has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-39%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bewick's Wren Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bewick's Wren in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Bewick's Wren Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Bewick's Wren in Arizona is projected to rise about 31% by 2030 — from 3.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±195.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±195.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bewick's Wren in Arizona is projected to rise about 31% by 2030 — from 3.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±195.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.50.0014
20274.40.0014
20284.30.0014
20294.20.0014
20304.10.0013

Bewick's Wren Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Bewick's Wren in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Zeniff4419841969
Black Mesa3719951988
Wikieup3520191994
Dragoon2920091993
Patagonia2320251968
Peña Blanca1920251975
Portal1820251975
Rucker1820091993
Sprucedale1320251992
Pomerene1120251968
Tonto Vill.1120251992
House Rock820221969
Forest Lakes820251993
Aztec Peak719781974
Cutter 2720182015
Mormon Lake619741968
Page620151993
Cutter620141992
Prescott520251974
Sunizona519921968
Skull Valley 2520252025
Sunizona 2520242001
Hunt420061969
Dateland420161990
Florence319881970

Bewick's Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymarylandmississippimissourinevadanew-mexiconorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.