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Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Yellow-throated Warbler in Missouri has surged: up 355% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+355%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-throated Warbler Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Warbler has surged in Missouri: up 355% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Missouri is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 0.78 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.63–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.63–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Missouri is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 0.78 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.63–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.950.561.3
20270.970.581.4
20280.980.591.4
20291.00.611.4
20301.00.631.4

Yellow-throated Warbler Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Yellow-throated Warbler in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cascade920251979
Centerville820251998
Akers520251968
Osage Beach520252010
Lincoln420252023
Bennett420251994
Pineville320241986
Mincy320252018
Hilda320172005
Clementine219951976
Hayden220122002
Syracuse220242013
Ohio220072007
House Springs220222017
Doe Run220242015
Trenton219751975
Williamsvill220251996
Moselle220252000
Graniteville220251990
Deventer120161980
Pulaski120251978
Peace Valley120122007
Sweden120252001
Cassville120251987
Cp Girardeau120211978

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniadelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganmississippinew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.