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Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Yellow-throated Warbler in Missouri has surged: up 357% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+357%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-throated Warbler Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Warbler has surged in Missouri: up 357% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Missouri is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 0.81 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.62–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.62–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Missouri is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 0.81 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.62–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.950.561.3
20260.960.571.4
20270.980.591.4
20281.000.611.4
20291.00.621.4

Yellow-throated Warbler Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Yellow-throated Warbler in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Osage Beach620242010
Centerville520241998
Cascade420241979
Williamsvill420241996
Crane420241995
Cassville320221987
Pineville320241986
Akers320241968
Wesco320241987
Hilda320172005
Sweden220242001
Clementine219951976
Hayden220122002
Syracuse220242013
Ohio220072007
Lincoln220232023
Gerald220242014
House Springs220222017
Doe Run220242015
Trenton219751975
West Plains220242018
Bennett220241994
Barks220241996
Moselle220242000
Graniteville220241990

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniadelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganmississippinew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.