BirdAnalyst
Species · South Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesForest birds

Yellow-throated Warbler in South Carolina has surged: up 121% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+121%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-throated Warbler Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Warbler has surged in South Carolina: up 121% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in South Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.1 (95% range 0.93–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.93–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in South Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.1 (95% range 0.93–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.00.863.1
20272.00.883.2
20282.00.893.2
20292.00.913.2
20302.10.933.2

Yellow-throated Warbler Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Yellow-throated Warbler in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dale1220251998
Salem Xrd1120191986
Hardeeville820251967
Pinewood820192009
Adams Run820241988
Nixville720251998
Walterboro520171970
Ridgeway520192012
Kiawah Island520252003
Plum Branch420251987
Greenwood420252001
Holly Hill320251972
Little Mtn319811966
Mount Pisgah320191998
Bennettsville320171998
Johns Isle219731967
Coward220251969
New Holland220251971
Wagener220101967
Nixonville219921987
Ward220252017
Carvers Bay220112007
Red Bluff220231996
Jamestown120191968
Rome120251971

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniadelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganmississippimissourinew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.