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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Yellow-throated Warbler in Arkansas has surged: up 153% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+153%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-throated Warbler Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Warbler has surged in Arkansas: up 153% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.98 (95% range 0.50–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.98Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.50–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.98 (95% range 0.50–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.930.451.4
20270.940.471.4
20280.960.481.4
20290.970.491.4
20300.980.501.5

Yellow-throated Warbler Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Yellow-throated Warbler in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stephens620252011
Ozark Nf520252009
Poyen520071970
Avoca520232022
Princeton520211998
Massard420142003
Locust Bayou320231967
Hatfield 2320252017
Rupert320241972
Compton320221967
Four Lakes320011995
Poyen 2320252008
Old Milo220251968
Hughes220231983
South Bend220091994
Hollywood220241969
Coal Hill220231981
Centerton220252025
Springhill220222010
Boston Mtn.220241994
Crowley'S Ridge220212011
Ramsey119941967
Stamps119961996
Hope120251979
Ashdown120061969

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamacaliforniadelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganmississippimissourinew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.