BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Yellow-throated Warbler in Virginia has surged: up 395% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+395%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-throated Warbler Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Warbler has surged in Virginia: up 395% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Virginia is projected to fall about 28% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.69–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.69–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Virginia is projected to fall about 28% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.69–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.20.611.8
20271.20.631.8
20281.20.651.8
20291.30.671.8
20301.30.691.9

Yellow-throated Warbler Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Yellow-throated Warbler in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brandon2020251992
Isom1520241980
Branchville1420241966
Pine Mtn.1220251996
Brodnax1220251973
Surry1120241981
Colonial Pky1019921992
Cape Charles920061993
Truhart920241996
Newville920241990
Nat Tunnel820251991
Putnam820251984
Mannboro720251974
Quinby720221973
Walkers720231993
Sharps420251969
Newsoms420241981
Dismal Swamp320161993
Amherst319971997
Church Road320251967
Stickleyvill319901977
Cornland319871980
Finchley320212013
Carters Brdg 2320252025
Dryden220051993

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniadelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganmississippimissourinew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexaswest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.