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Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Yellow-throated Warbler in Virginia has surged: up 385% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+385%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-throated Warbler Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Warbler has surged in Virginia: up 385% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Virginia is projected to fall about 45% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.64–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.64–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Virginia is projected to fall about 45% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.64–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.561.7
20261.10.581.7
20271.20.601.7
20281.20.621.8
20291.20.641.8

Yellow-throated Warbler Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Yellow-throated Warbler in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brandon2120241992
Isom1520241980
Branchville1420241966
Surry1120241981
Colonial Pky1019921992
Cape Charles920061993
Pine Mtn.920241996
Brodnax920241973
Truhart920241996
Newville920241990
Quinby720221973
Walkers720231993
Gloucester520232006
Mannboro520241974
Newsoms420241981
Port Royal320192009
Dismal Swamp320161993
Amherst319971997
Stickleyvill319901977
Cornland319871980
Finchley320212013
Dryden220051993
Nat Tunnel220241991
Ft Pickett S219951993
Carters Brdg219901990

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniadelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganmississippimissourinew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexaswest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.