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Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesForest birds

Yellow-throated Warbler in Oklahoma has surged: up 443% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+443%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-throated Warbler Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Warbler has surged in Oklahoma: up 443% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 37% by 2030 — from 0.67 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.42 (95% range 0.24–0.60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-37%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.42Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.24–0.6095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 37% by 2030 — from 0.67 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.42 (95% range 0.24–0.60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.390.210.57
20270.400.220.58
20280.410.230.58
20290.410.230.59
20300.420.240.60

Yellow-throated Warbler Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Yellow-throated Warbler in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Goodwater520212001
Blanco320161967
Phillips320252025
Mt. Herman320222002
Hee Mountain320241999
Ouachita Nf220251993
Baron220121978
Indianola220252025
Holdenville220251974
Sandbluff220251992
Matoy220252025
Colcord220221993
Big Cedar120241967
Mcalester119911991
Ardmore120252025
Canadian119921982
Noble120252019
Welch119841984
Bartlesville120252010
Bethel120251994
Heyburn120252008
Pushmataha120221994

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniadelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganmississippimissourinew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.